US Open 2013: Renaissance man Rafael Nadal arrives as the man to beat

Rafael Nadal is fully fit and has won all 15 matches he has played on hardcourt this year, so why do we doubt him?

What a year-and-a-half Rafael Nadal has had. If the splendid Spaniard can win the 2013 US Open, it will rank among the most heart-warming of sporting comebacks, and one we ought to have seen coming.

Watching Nadal crunch one wicked forehand after another past a desperate Roger Federer in Cincinnati earlier this month was to witness two champions re-energised, the younger man prevailing to record his 21st win over the older in 31 meetings. It was not just a quarter-final of a Masters 1000 tournament, it was a reminder of how brilliant both of them had been for such a long stretch and for our grateful enjoyment.

Federer was magnificent one more time. Nadal was more magnificent. And here they are again, back in New York, where they have never met and where the Swiss has won five of his 17 slam finals (the last of them five years ago, against Andy Murray), the man from Majorca just one of his 12.

If Federer is on a bit of a bounce, this is Nadal's third renaissance. The first followed his serial mauling by Novak Djokovic in 2011, when it seemed the entire top 10 playing at once could not stop the Serb, who tortured Nadal on his favoured clay and everywhere else, beating him for fun. It had to end, and Nadal did just that where we thought he might, at Roland Garros last year, stopping Djokovic's bid for four slams in a row. Then Lukas Rosol impertinently put the great man down at Wimbledon and Nadal hobbled into rehab for seven months, returning to shock us all with an astonishing run that began on the kind clay of South America, took him unbeaten through the unforgiving hardcourt of Indian Wells – where he beat Ernests Gulbis, Federer, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martín del Potro – and back to Europe. Surprisingly, he faltered against Djokovic in Monte Carlo, ending a decade's reign, before resuming dominance around his red-dirt manor of Barcelona, Madrid and Rome. Paris fell to him again, his eighth title.

When he lost at Wimbledon for the second year in a row, however – this time to Steve Darcis – eyebrows raised as sharply as his own, and we wondered if this was the finish line for him and his tender knees. How much pain could he take on legs that were the foundation of his tennis, that scurried like boxers' across the baseline, putting him in place to turn those iron wrists through his left-handed forehand and leave even the very best exasperated?

It was not the end, though. Nadal came back once more to terrorise the contenders in Montreal then Cincinnati. He stands now on the verge of more glory. To put himself in sight of the final, he will more than likely have to embarrass Federer for the 22nd time. Their pairing in that quarter of the draw was more influential on the tournament than was Andy Murray's with Djokovic in their half. At least the Scot and the Serb can meet in the semis; Nadal and Federer will get their fight out of the way earlier, and a predicted win for Nadal will surely bring him to a dangerous peak.

Since returning to the American hardcourts in August, he has played without tape around his knee, the scrapping of a literal and metaphorical bind. The lack of wrapping sends a message to everyone in the field: Rafa is fully fit. There is no guarantee he will not bend to the strain of the game, mind, but for now this is pretty much vintage Nadal on offer at Flushing Meadows over the next fortnight. This Nadal cannot only win a second US Open, he can do it in the manner of the past, with snorting aggression and frightening commitment.

When he was walking on to court for the final in Cincinnati against John Isner, he was ambushed by the TV courtside interviewer and his face was a picture of distraction, eyes blazing and impatient for the fight. The answers were clipped, the win clinical.

This year Nadal, supreme on clay, has guided his dodgy knees to 15 wins in 15 matches on the hardcourts, reckoned to be the surface to cut him down.

But his history is gilded. As well as his career dominance over Federer, he leads Murray 13-5 and Djokovic 21-15. He has a winning percentage against every single player in the top 30 and, in the top 100, all but Nikolay Davydenko among those he has played at least three times. Why do we doubt him?